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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 4-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model