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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.36 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model