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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 71

New York Jets 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(8:00) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-D.Hester to BAL 34 for 9 yards (47-K.Davis). FUMBLES (47-K.Davis), ball out of bounds at BAL 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model