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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 13 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(4:42) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 27 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP