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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to NYJ 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 9 for 4 yards (42-M.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.06 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model