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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 13 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.69 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model