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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 45

New York Jets 14 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 4-L.Edwards punts 17 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.97 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model