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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 16 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to NYJ 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model