4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 90

New York Jets 14 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to BAL 44, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-D.Hester MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 42. 14-D.Hester to BAL 42 for no gain (32-J.Burris).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.29 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 90, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP