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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Jets 14 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP