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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 52

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 92% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model