4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP