Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(13:49) 9-S.Lechler punts 62 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 24 for 16 yards (53-M.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model