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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 11

Houston Texans 6 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 8-N.Novak 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model