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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 79

Denver Broncos 14 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to HOU 43, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model