Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 71

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to HOU 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-42-C.Kreiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model