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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(7:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model