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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(5:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to IND 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.77 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP