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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(2:23) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.57 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP