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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model