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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 28 for 7 yards (48-B.Brinkley). PENALTY on IND-25-P.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model