Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 6

(2:21) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 60 yards to TEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 24 for 7 yards (28-J.Todman; 41-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.79 EP
53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model