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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 72

New England Patriots 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:16) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 25 yards to PIT 47, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model