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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 77

New England Patriots 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to PIT 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model