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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP