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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(14:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.88 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model