Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to NE 29, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 12 yards (51-S.Johnson). FUMBLES (51-S.Johnson), RECOVERED by PIT-60-G.Warren at NE 43. 60-G.Warren to NE 43 for no gain (11-J.Edelman).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model