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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(9:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP