Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 83

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – New England Patriots 27

(5:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to NE 31, Center-60-G.Warren. 80-D.Amendola to NE 37 for 6 yards (51-S.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.96 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model