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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP