Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 7

(:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to NE 16, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.30 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model