4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 7-C.Catanzaro 39 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-B.Wagner), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley, RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at SEA 31. 54-B.Wagner to SEA 31 for no gain (9-R.Quigley).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.42 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model