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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 28

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 7-C.Catanzaro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model