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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to ARI 18, Center-48-N.Frese. 10-B.Golden to ARI 25 for 7 yards (27-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.91 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model