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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 19

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to SEA 19 for no gain (50-K.Wright, 72-M.Bennett). ARI-76-M.Iupati was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 19, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model