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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-N.Frese. 10-B.Golden to ARI 20 for -2 yards (21-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.84 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model