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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.48 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP