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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 20

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) 3-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.72 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model