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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 59

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model