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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 30

Detroit Lions 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.57 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model