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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 84

Detroit Lions 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to HOU 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 47 for 15 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.88 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model