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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 44

Houston Texans 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 28-A.Blue left guard to DET 42 for 2 yards (61-K.Hyder; 99-K.Thornton).

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.24 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model