Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 91

Detroit Lions 0 – Houston Texans 14

(1:32) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to HOU 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 34-T.Ervin to DET 44 for 8 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.17 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model