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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 38

Detroit Lions 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 80-A.Boldin [51-J.Simon].

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model