Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 73

Houston Texans 17 – Detroit Lions 10

(12:51) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to DET 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Roberts to DET 22 for 8 yards (20-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model