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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 18

Houston Texans 17 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.10 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model