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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 3-M.Bryant 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model