Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Green Bay Packers 14

(6:02) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to GB 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Davis to ATL 15 for 55 yards (36-K.Ishmael).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.54 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model