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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 24 – Atlanta Falcons 19

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 10-J.Schum punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model