Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 32 – Atlanta Falcons 33

(:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Adams.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP

What Happened

56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.16 EP
44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -1.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP